Key takeaways:
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Deteriorating US-China relations, US President Donald Trump’s recent tariff expansion and traders avoiding long leverage are adding pressure to Bitcoin’s downside.
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Bitcoin could drop below $100,000, but analysts are hopeful that next week’s macroeconomic events will reverse the downtrend.
Data shows Bitcoin’s (BTC) market structure aiming toward establishing balance from last week’s sharp correction, but intensifying headwinds from Trump’s renewed tariff war with China and the record length of the US government shutdown serve as an overhang on bullish investors’ willingness to open new positions in futures markets.
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, the Coinbase Premium Index and the spot cumulative volume delta (the net difference between market buys and sells) for professional and retail-sized investors at Coinbase have been steadily trending upward since Bitcoin sold off to $107,000 at the exchange on Oct. 10.
As shown in the chart below, the volume delta, funding, and open interest dynamics of the Bitcoin markets have evolved since the Oct. 10 sell-off. US retail and institutional investors are clear accumulators of BTC, while Binance perpetual futures traders (red line) have been aggressively selling.
Comparing Binance spot versus its futures volumes (third panel), the spot delta is positive, whereas the negative perps delta highlights rising short-positions, confirming the view that perps-driven selling is reinforcing the downtrend, while spot buyers’ demand provides strength at $107,000 to $108,000.
An alternate view of this expression is shown below.
Considering Bitcoin’s potential price action in the short-term, the liquidation heatmap outlook (Binance, Bybit, BitMEX) infers that momentum traders might chase liquidation clusters for longs at $106,300 to $104,000 and short positions are at risk of closure at $115,000.
While prices are expected to stay rocky in the short term, Lekker Capital chief investment officer Quinn Thompson said:
“10/10 liquidation cleared more leverage in $ and % of OI than the entire Jan-Apr ‘25 period. Opportunity ahead is similar to pre-Trump victory ‘24.”
Following in the same vein, macroeconomics-focused account Tom Capital reminded traders to “just trade the price action” as the next week is expected to provide plenty of actionable events.
Over the next week, you’ll likely have to navigate these narratives:
– US CPI release
– Potential US government reopening
– Fed rate cut (future cuts)
– Nikkei topping at 50,000
– Gold topping
– TACO or no TACO (Trump’s self-imposed 100% tariffs on China, etc.)Or you could…
— Tom Capital (@Tom__Capital) October 21, 2025
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
