Bitcoin’s price movements over the past week have tested even the most seasoned crypto investors. After falling from above $107,000 to nearly $94,000 in just three days, the largest cryptocurrency has returned to levels not seen for months. The sharp decline has divided analysts, with some confident that the market has already bottomed and others warning that the worst may not be over.
Bitcoin’s volatility is nothing new, but the scale of the moves feels more intense now because the price is far higher than in past cycles. A 10% or 15% swing now equates to thousands of dollars — a magnitude that can easily shake investor confidence even if the percentage drop is smaller than previous cycles.
Is Bitcoin’s Bottom Already In?
Following the rapid correction, several analysts suggested that Friday’s plunge to $94,000 may represent the bottom of the current downturn. They argue that the sell-off came after weeks of sideways movement, fading momentum, and increasing caution in derivatives markets.
However, not everyone agrees. Another group of analysts believes Bitcoin has room to fall further before a true rebound begins. Some point toward the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures chart, which shows a price gap near $92,000. Historically, Bitcoin has been known to fill these gaps — sometimes quickly, sometimes weeks or months after they form.
One of the strongest voices in this group is market commentator Merlijn The Trader, who referenced the recent price action and the CME gap, saying a deeper drop is still possible. In his analysis, he highlighted that Bitcoin has already filled one gap near $97,000 and suggested that the next one around $92,000 may be targeted next.
His view is uncompromising: “Final shakeouts are brutal. But once they’re done… Bitcoin takes off when everyone least expects it.”
What a Final Shakeout Could Look Like
Crypto markets tend to follow a familiar emotional pattern during downtrends — early disbelief, followed by anxiety, capitulation, and then recovery. According to analysts like Merlijn, Bitcoin may currently be in the anxiety-to-capitulation stage. The next potential leg down, if it happens, would be aimed at flushing out overleveraged positions and short-term holders who have entered the market during recent rallies.
The idea behind a shakeout is simple: weak hands sell, strong hands accumulate. This process removes excess leverage, reduces volatility, and ultimately allows for a more stable path upward.
However, the experience can be punishing for anyone who reacts emotionally. Sudden dips, forced liquidations, and extreme fear tend to accompany shakeouts. In past cycles, Bitcoin has historically reversed after such phases rather than during moments of market optimism.
How the Bullish View Fits In
Even though Merlijn and other traders acknowledge the possibility of one more drop, their overall outlook remains positive beyond the correction. The reason is based on market structure and supply dynamics rather than short-term price behavior.
According to Merlijn, the current correction fits the final phase of a Wyckoff accumulation structure — a long-studied model that tracks how price cycles form through institutional accumulation and public reactions. In his view, Phase E of the model is already confirmed, meaning the market is approaching the final portion of the shakeout period.
The core of his bullish argument is that smart money typically increases positions during these declining periods, while retail investors panic. If this phase plays out the same way as previous cycles, many long-term investors may be accumulating, even though price appears weak.
Bitcoin Supply Continues to Leave Exchanges
Beyond technical structures, on-chain metrics give additional insight into market behavior. One of the most relevant indicators is exchange reserves — the amount of Bitcoin available on centralized trading platforms.
This number has now fallen to a new all-time low. The declining reserves signal that more Bitcoin is being withdrawn to cold wallets rather than kept on exchanges for trading or selling. Analysts generally view this as a sign of long-term conviction.
A drop in supply during a price correction is uncommon and creates a clash between two forces: temporary selling pressure vs. long-term accumulation. When selling slows and demand returns, reduced exchange supply can create upward pressure — though the timing of this transition remains uncertain.
What Comes Next?
The disagreement among analysts reflects a wider uncertainty in the global financial landscape. Bitcoin is reacting not only to crypto-specific conditions, but also to macroeconomic developments, shifting liquidity expectations, geopolitical tension, and skepticism across risk-oriented markets.
There are now two realistic paths in front of Bitcoin:
1. A deeper shakeout before recovery
If the CME gap around $92,000 becomes a target, the market could see another wave of volatility. This move would likely intensify fear and force additional liquidations. But if it matches historical shakeout behavior, it could also trigger the next stage of accumulation.
2. The bottom has already formed
If Friday’s drop to $94,000 marks the end of the decline, a gradual stabilization pattern could follow. The market would then watch for rising volume, improved sentiment, and stronger buying interest before any major rebound.
Either path still aligns with a longer-term bullish thesis supported by institutional participation, shrinking supply on exchanges, and continued development across the Bitcoin ecosystem.
A Cycle Driven by Emotion and Opportunity
Bitcoin’s long-term price history shows that panic and opportunity often appear together. During major downturns, long-term investors have historically accumulated while short-term participants capitulated. Whether Bitcoin drops further or has already bottomed, the current environment is testing patience, conviction, and emotional resilience.
As Merlijn concluded in his analysis: this stage is where long-term winners prepare while others panic. Markets have shown repeatedly that Bitcoin tends to shift direction at the moment when the majority least expects it.
For now, the only certainty is volatility — and the belief that the next major trend will be shaped by how traders respond during the most uncertain period of the cycle.
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