Planets would almost need to align for Bitcoin to reach $250,000 by the end of the year, according to Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz.
Several crypto executives have recently doubled down on their $250,000 Bitcoin (BTC) predictions by year-end.
“The end of the year is only two and a half months away,” Novogratz said during an interview with CNBC on Wednesday, adding:
“There would have to be a heck of a lot of crazy stuff to really get that kind of momentum.”
At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $107,649, according to CoinMarketCap, meaning it would need to surge approximately 133% within the next 10 weeks.
Novogratz says Bitcoin should hold $100,000
Novogratz said that in a worst-case scenario, Bitcoin “should hold” around $100,000, a key psychological level it first broke through in December 2024, shortly after Donald Trump was reelected US president.
Novogratz said that the $100,000 price level or “somewhere close to that should be the downside.”
Bitcoin came close to retesting that level not long ago, following Trump’s 100% tariffs on China, which caused the market to tumble on Oct. 10 to $102,000.
“On the upside, you don’t really accelerate until you take out $125,000,” he said, referring to Bitcoin’s recent all-time highs of $125,100 on Oct. 5. He added:
“So the most likely outlook is we’re rangy between 100 and 120 or 125, unless we take out the top side.”
Novogratz said potential triggers for pushing through that all-time high level again could be if Trump moves to influence the Federal Reserve “prematurely” or if the crypto market structure bill, known as the CLARITY Act, passes this year.
“Those are the two kinds of catalysts I see,” he said. The wider crypto industry has been keeping a close eye on the Fed’s decisions on interest rates as a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin after cutting its first rates for this year in September.
There are 96.7% odds of the Fed cutting rates again at the Oct. 29 Fed meeting, according to CME’s Fed Watch Tool.
Some analysts say Bitcoin year-end price is not important
Other crypto executives are still hopeful that Bitcoin will surge to $250,000 by the end of this year.
Speaking on the Bankless podcast earlier this month, BitMine chair Tom Lee and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said they remain confident Bitcoin can hit between $200,000 and $250,000 by year-end, a prediction they’ve stuck with for most of this year.
Related: Bitcoin chart is echoing the 1970s soybean bubble: Peter Brandt
However, some analysts aren’t that concerned about what Bitcoin’s price ends up being at the end of this year. “
Bitcoin analyst PlanC said on Sept. 5, “Anyone who thinks Bitcoin has to peak in Q4 of this year does not understand statistics or probability.”
Magazine: Adam Back says Bitcoin price cycle ’10x bigger’ but will still decisively break above $100K
